Weekly Macro Update: U.S. Mobility and COVID-19
Our last macro newsletter focused on U.S. manufacturing. This week’s newsletter provides an update on U.S. mobility and COVID-19. Here are the highlights:
Mobility continues to remain downtrodden as COVID-19 lockdown measures continue to put pressure on people to stay at home
Coronavirus cases are improving across the U.S., down 31% in the last 14 days
The vaccine rollout is finally picking up pace with 42.4 million vaccines administered and 9.5 million people fully vaccinated
U.S. Mobility:
Google’s mobility reports provide a keen insight into how consumers are acting under COVID-19 lockdown measures. The data shows mobility trends in the following areas:
Retail and Recreation
Grocery and Pharmacy
Parks
Transit Stations
Workplaces
Residential
The data is presented as an index, with a baseline derived from average mobility for that day of the week from the 5‑week period between January 3rd and February 6th, 2020.
Source: Google Community Mobility Reports, chart created by The Macro Mail
Mobility has continued to decline across the board with visits to transit stations and workplaces showing some of the poorest data since early May as states continue to be affected by COVID-19 lockdown measures. Grocery & Pharmacy visits, which, as essential stores have typically remained the strongest area of mobility, also registered a significant decline and mobility is at levels not seen since April.
COVID-19:
Coronavirus cases, however, are on the decline, down 31% in the last 14 days. According to The New York Times, 44 states are seeing sustained improvement across the board, with cases largely flat in the other six. The six states where cases are higher and staying high are:
Arkansas
Colorado
Vermont
Oregon
South Dakota
Source: Track The Recovery, chart created by The Macro Mail
The U.S. vaccine rollout appears to be speeding up, and according to The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, roughly 42.4 million vaccines have been administered, with 9.5 million people fully vaccinated. President Biden has said that he aims to get at least 100 million COVID-19 vaccine shots into the arms of the American people in the first 100 days of his presidency. With estimates that 70-90% of the population need to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity, it’s unlikely that mobility, particularly for travel & recreation, will meaningfully recover anytime soon.
Things We’re Reading:
“Yellen predicts full US employment next year if stimulus is passed” - Financial Times
“European stocks and U.S. bond yields climb on expectations stimulus will heat economy” - MarketWatch
“The U.S. Economy Is Ripe for Strongest Growth in 40 Years, Macquarie Says. Think 7.1% or More.” - Barrons
“Robinhood Not Out of the "Woods after GameStop Ructions” - Financial Times
“The GameStop conundrum” - Vuk Vukovic
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